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Who Really Pays When Tariffs Escalate? Ask the Workers.

As Washington slaps new tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and dairy, Ottawa promises retaliation. Behind the diplomatic brinkmanship are workers and families who did not choose this fight.

There is a moment in every trade dispute when the language of diplomacy gives way to the language of daily life. Numbers become names. Tariff schedules become paycheques. And the people who find themselves in the middle are rarely the ones who drew the battle lines. That is where Canada now finds itself, as the United States imposes new tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and dairy products, and Ottawa responds with threats of its own. It is a familiar script, but the stakes are not abstract. Every tariff line on a government spreadsheet represents a community, a workplace, a family trying to make ends meet.

The facts, as reported by CBC News and The Globe and Mail, are straightforward enough: the Canadian government is responding to new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, including softwood lumber and dairy. Ottawa has threatened retaliatory measures and is seeking dispute resolution under the USMCA trade agreement. The broad strokes are familiar. The details, however, will be written in the lives of workers and families across the country. It is worth slowing down to read those details, because the distance between a tariff schedule and a kitchen table is shorter than it looks.

Let's start with softwood lumber. The industry is not an abstraction. It is a way of life for communities across British Columbia, Quebec, Ontario, and the Maritimes. It is the mill worker who clocks in before dawn, the trucker hauling logs down winding roads, the small-town café owner who depends on the mill's payroll. When tariffs land, they do not just land on lumber. They land on all of it. They land on the school budgets that depend on property taxes from the mill. They land on the local hardware store that sells steel-toed boots and safety glasses. They land on the young person deciding whether to stay in town or leave for the city.

The same is true for dairy. Canadian dairy farms are family operations, often passed down through generations. The supply management system that the United States has long objected to is not merely a trade policy; it is a deliberate choice about how a country wants to feed itself and sustain its rural communities. To treat it as an unfair trade barrier is to misunderstand what it is for. Dairy farmers are not faceless producers. They are neighbours, parents, and employers. They are the reason a small town still has a main street. When their livelihoods are threatened, the whole community feels the tremor.

And yet, here we are. The United States has chosen to escalate. Canada has chosen to respond. And the USMCA, the agreement that was supposed to bring predictability to North American trade, is being tested in real time. Whether it holds will depend on whether its dispute resolution mechanisms can do what they were designed to do: provide a peaceful path through conflict. The agreement was never perfect, but it was a promise that disputes would be settled by rules rather than by whoever shouted loudest. That promise is now on the line.

It is worth pausing to ask who benefits from this escalation. The answer, as with so much of modern trade politics, is not the people who do the work. It is the political actors who gain from appearing tough, the corporate interests that hope to gain advantage, and the consultants and lawyers who will bill by the hour for the privilege of managing the chaos. For them, a trade war is a business opportunity. For workers, it is a threat. That gap between who profits and who pays is not an accident. It is a design flaw in the way we talk about trade.

Meanwhile, the costs are borne by people with far less power. Workers face uncertainty about whether their jobs will survive the next round of tariffs. Families face higher prices at the grocery store and the hardware store. Small businesses that depend on cross-border supply chains face decisions that no small business should have to make. Should they stock up now? Should they delay expansion? Should they tell their employees to start looking for other work? These are not questions that appear in trade negotiation briefs. They are questions that appear at kitchen tables.

This is not to say that Canada should simply accept the tariffs. A country has a right, and sometimes a duty, to defend its industries and its workers. But retaliation is a tool, not a strategy. And when retaliation is threatened without a clear plan for who it will help and who it will hurt, it risks becoming a gesture rather than a solution. The goal should not be to match the other side blow for blow. The goal should be to protect the people who are most exposed, and to use every available mechanism to de-escalate rather than inflame.

The asymmetry of power in this relationship is impossible to ignore. The United States is Canada's largest trading partner by far, and its economy dwarfs Canada's. When Washington acts, Ottawa must respond. But Canada's leverage is limited, and everyone who has studied these disputes knows it. That does not mean Canada is helpless. It means that every move must be made with care, because the margin for error is small. A miscalculation does not just cost a negotiation. It costs jobs.

That asymmetry is why the USMCA matters so much. It is not a perfect agreement. It was negotiated under threat and signed under pressure. But it contains dispute resolution mechanisms that are supposed to give smaller countries a fair hearing. For Canada, those mechanisms are not a luxury. They are a lifeline. The United States may have more economic weight, but the USMCA was supposed to be a space where rules matter more than size. If that space collapses, Canada is left with no forum where its voice can be heard.

The dairy dispute is particularly telling. The United States has long criticized Canada's supply management system, which uses production limits and price controls to support domestic farmers. It is a system that has its critics within Canada as well, including economists who argue it raises costs for consumers. But it is also a system that has helped sustain family farms in an era when consolidation has reshaped rural communities. The debate over supply management is not just a debate about trade. It is a debate about what kind of countryside a country wants to have.

The softwood lumber dispute is different in kind but similar in effect. It is a dispute with a long history, one that has resurfaced repeatedly over the years. Each time it returns, the cost is measured not just in dollars but in closed mills and displaced workers. The pattern is so well established that it almost feels like a ritual. But rituals have consequences. Every cycle of tariffs and retaliation leaves communities a little smaller, a little more fragile, and a little less certain that the future will be better than the past.

There is a pattern here, and the pattern is worth naming. Trade disputes are often framed as battles between countries, but they are really battles over how the costs and benefits of economic integration are distributed. The benefits flow to those who own capital and can move it across borders. The costs land on those whose labor is tied to a place. That is not a conspiracy. It is a structural reality. And it will not change unless we change the questions we ask about trade.

That is why a worker-centered approach to trade policy is so urgently needed. It would ask different questions. Not just 'Is this legal under USMCA?' but 'What will this mean for the mill town in British Columbia?' Not just 'Who wins this round?' but 'Who carries the cost of the next round?' It would start from the assumption that workers are not inputs to be managed. They are the reason an economy exists in the first place. Trade policy should be measured by what it does for them, not what it does to them.

It would also ask questions about democratic accountability. Trade agreements are negotiated in secret, with input from corporate advisors and trade lawyers. Workers and communities are consulted, if at all, after the fact. The result is a system that consistently prioritizes the interests of exporters over the interests of workers, and the interests of consumers over the interests of producers. That is not a recipe for public trust. It is a recipe for resentment, and we are seeing that resentment on both sides of the border.

None of this is to suggest that trade itself is the problem. Trade can be a source of prosperity and connection. It can create jobs and lower prices and build bridges between countries. But trade that is managed without regard for its human consequences is trade that will eventually face a backlash. We are seeing that backlash on both sides of the border. The answer is not to retreat from trade. The answer is to manage it differently, with more transparency, more fairness, and more attention to who is left behind.

The question now is what happens next. Ottawa has threatened retaliation and is seeking dispute resolution. Those are reasonable first steps. But they are only first steps. The deeper work is to build a trade policy that puts workers and communities at the center, that treats the USMCA as a floor rather than a ceiling, and that recognizes that the health of an economy is measured in the well-being of its people. That work will not be done in a single negotiation. It will be done over time, through organizing, through elections, and through the quiet persistence of communities that refuse to be written off.

For the workers in the lumber mills and on the dairy farms, the coming weeks and months will be a time of uncertainty. They did not ask for this fight. They did not choose this escalation. They are, as so often happens, the ones who will carry the cost of decisions made far above them. They will be told that this is the price of standing up for Canada. But they know, better than anyone, that the price is not paid by the people making the decisions.

It does not have to be this way. Trade disputes can be resolved without punishing workers. Agreements can be enforced without escalating conflict. And governments can choose to put the people who do the work at the center of their economic policy, rather than treating them as an afterthought. That choice is not easy. It requires courage and political will. But it is available, and it is worth demanding.

The news from the trade front is not good. But it is not the whole story. The whole story is about the communities that will endure, the workers who will organize, the families who will find a way through. They have been here before, and they will be here again. The least we can do is tell their story clearly, and ask the questions that matter. The answers will not come from a tariff schedule. They will come from the people who live with the consequences.